Baltimore Orioles
Where they’ve been
The O’s have hit on their past two first-round picks, RHP Dylan Bundy (’11) and SS Manny Machado (’10), but before that it was hit (C Matt Wieters, ’07) or miss (RHP Matt Hobgood, ’09). They have shown no real tendency with their first pick, but when they get past the first-round, they tend to be pretty specific. More so than any other team in the American League East, they prefer college players, and specifically pitchers. Over the past five years, they have gone the college route 72% of the time in the first ten rounds. No other team in the East selects more than 46% collegiate players. 55% of the time they go with a pitcher, and predominantly (40%) he’s a right-hander.
2011 first round pick(s): RHP Dylan Bundy
2010: SS Manny Machado
2009: RHP Matt Hobgood
2008: LHP Brian Matusz
2007: C Matt Wieters
State of the farm system
Buxton has been on a tear in 2012, showcasing his ability on the mound and at the plate.
The O’s have one of the weakest farm systems in the game, a product of hitting solely on first-round picks the past decade. They’ve thrown a lot of money on mid-to-late round picks like C Wynston Sawyer (’10), C Michael Ohlman (’09) and RHP Cameron Coffey (’09), only to see them produce little. The strength of their system is pitching, with Bundy, RHP Mike Wright (’11), RHP Ryan Berry (’09) and RHP Kyle Simon (’11) representing the top arms. They have some nice pieces in their pool of position players, especially Machado and 2B/SS Jonathan Schoop (’08 international class), but aside from those two, there are very few players who seem like safe bets to reach their ceiling.
Where they’re looking
Picking fourth allows the Orioles many options, just like last year. They’ll no doubt target a few players, but in the end they’ll likely take whichever player is the best on the board. Also like last year, there’s a solid chance that the best player from the high-school ranks (OF Byron Buxton) falls to them. They won’t turn away RHP Kyle Zimmer (San Francisco) or RHP Mark Appel (Stanford) if either one makes it past Houston, Minnesota and Seattle, but their system is incredibly weak when it comes to position players, so Buxton seems to make the most sense. Baltimore could also be the first potential landing spot for LSU ace RHP Kevin Gausman.
Boston Red Sox
Where they’ve been
The Sox have taken some real chances in the first-round the past few years. Unfortunately for them, some of their best picks, including OF Reymond Fuentes (’09), RHP Casey Kelly (’08) and LHP Nick Hagadone (’07) are no longer with the organization. 2B/3B Kolbrin Vitek (’10) has looked good at the plate, but his bat doesn’t exactly scream “impact,” while it’s way too soon to tell what they have in last year’s duo, RHP Matt Barnes and C Blake Swihart. Like three of their division rivals, the Red Sox have tended to fancy high-schoolers in the top ten rounds over the past half decade, going that route 54% of the time. They do have quite a thing for middle infielders (2B/SS), whom they have picked 14% of the time and moreso than any other team in the East they have a preference for outfielders, who make up one-quarter of their picks during that time period.
2011: RHP Matt Barnes, C Blake Swihart, LHP Henry Owens, OF Jackie Bradley
2010: 2B Kolbrin Vitek, OF Bryce Brentz, RHP Anthony Ranaudo
2009: OF Reymond Fuentes
2008: RHP/SS Casey Kelly, RHP Bryan Price
2007: LHP Nick Hagadone, SS Ryan Dent
State of the farm system
Stroman doesn't have prototypical size, but his stuff is as good as any college pitcher.
The Sox have a system that would be classified as slightly above-average, but so many of their top players, specifically their pitchers, have failed to live up to their billing, including LHP Drake Britton (’07) and RHP Stolmy Pimentel (’06 international class). The strength of their system is their hitters. 3B Will Middlebrooks was an unheralded pick back in 2007, but is now knocking on the big-league door. OF Brandon Jacobs (’09) and OF Bryce Brentz (’10) both had breakout seasons in 2011, and could be impact players one day. They also have quite a find in SS Xander Bogaerts (’09 international class), who has emerged as arguably the top power hitter in the system.
Where they’re looking
The Sox have been great about going after the best player available the past few years, and haven’t let need dictate their selections. They have two picks in the first-round (24th and 31st) and could go numerous ways. Expect them to go after whoever slides, maybe a RHP Chris Beck (Georgia Southern) or a RHP Marcus Stroman (Duke). Both players should be gone by then, but both also have enough question marks that they could slip come draft day. A college pitcher might make the most sense considering the state of their big-league rotation and the strength of their position talent down on the farm. Also keep an eye on Oklahoma State ace LHP Andrew Heaney.
New York Yankees
Where they’ve been
The Yankees success in both free agency and the international market have made any draft hits merely an added bonus. As such, they tend to go out on a limb more than most. Their past two selections in the first or supplemental first-round, 3B Dante Bichette Jr. (’11) and SS Cito Culver (’10) prove that point. Picking late in the first-round, if they even have a pick there, has also afforded them little opportunity to snatch up any of the elite players from the past decade’s worth of drafts. Once out of the first-round, the team is pretty consistent. They tend to favor right-handed pitching and have gone that route 37% of the time in the top ten rounds the past five drafts, but they’re also very loyal to the high-school ranks, selecting from that pool 55% of the time. Along with Toronto, they’ve been the most aggresive pursuers of high-school right-handers (16% of all picks).
2011: 3B Dante Bichette Jr.
2010: SS Cito Culver
2009: OF Slade Heathcott
2008: RHP Gerrit Cole, LHP Jeremy Bleich
2007: RHP Andrew Brackman
Smoral's injury could cause him to fall drastically on draft day.
State of the farm system
Aside from a few high-risk, high-reward players the Yankees farm system is in pretty bad shape. RHP Dellin Betances (’06), LHP Manny Banuelos (’08 international class), C Gary Sanchez (’09 international class) and OF Mason Williams (’10) have all shown flashes of brilliance, but each has a factor that could limit their growth and success at the big-league level. Bichette Jr. provides some much needed pop that they will lack without Jesus Montero.
Where they’re looking
The Yankees first pick is the second-to-last of the first-round. Like Boston, they’ll have a good chance at landing a player that slides almost all the way out of the first-round. With their tendency to favor high-school pitching, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them pull the trigger on a RHP Ty Hensley (Santa Fe HS, OK), LHP Hunter Virant (Camarillo HS, CA), or RHP Lucas Sims (Brookwood HS, GA). Burly LHP Matt Smoral (Solon HS, OH) could also be available, depending on how his rehab goes with his foot injury, and would fit their tendency for big, physical pitchers (Betances, Andrew Brackman, etc.).
Tampa Bay Rays
Where they’ve been
The Rays took full advantage of last year’s record number of first and supplemental first-round picks and restocked their organization. Most of the picks were spent on high schoolers, as seems to be the trend. 54% of the time they have favored high schoolers over the past five years of top ten round picks. Prior to 2011, the organization tended to favor players with less name recognition, such as C Justin O’Conner (’10) and OF Levon Washington (’09), but they have made exceptions for players who somehow slip to them, including OF Josh Sale (’10) and last year’s top two picks, RHP Taylor Guerrieri and OF Mikie Mahtook. Interestingly enough, the Rays are the only franchise in the AL East who don’t draft a right-handed pitcher with the majority of their picks. Rather, they skew in favor of outfielders (24%) and middle infielders (22%).
2011: RHP Taylor Guerrieri, OF Mikie Mahtook, SS Jake Hager, SS Brandon Martin, 3B Tyler Goeddel, RHP Jeff Ames, LHP Blake Snell, OF Kes Carter, LHP Grayson Garvin, OF James Harris
2010: OF Josh Sale, C, Justin O’Conner, OF Drew Vettleson
2009: 2B/OF Devon Washington
2008: SS Tim Beckham
2007: LHP David Price
Gallo has immense power and will be a first-round lock.
State of the farm system
You could take just the Rays picks from last year’s draft and build a farm system that is equal to some of the worst in baseball. Toss in some players like SS Tim Beckham (’08), SS Hak-Ju Lee (’08 international class), LHP Enny Romero (’08 international class), and OF Drew Vettleson (’10), combine them with Guerrieri, Mahtook and the rest of their class of 2011 and they have arguably the top farm system in baseball. And that’s without Matt Moore, who graduated this season. There are very few positions that the Rays aren’t incredibly deep at.
Where they’re looking
Tampa has just one pick in the first-round this year, 25th overall. There’s no way they go into this draft with any plan other than, “scoop up whoever falls to us.” Given their loyalty to the high school ranks, it wouldn’t be a shock to see them tab a raw, but projectable player like 1B Joey Gallo (Bishop Gorman HS, NV), RHP Mitchell Traver (Houston Christian HS, TX) or LHP Matt Smoral (Solon HS, OH). However, if a player OF Tyler Naquin (Texas A&M) or 1B/3B Richie Shaffer (Clemson) piques their interest don’t be shocked.
Toronto Blue Jays
Where they’ve been
The Jays have drafted better than just about any franchise in baseball since Alex Anthopoulos took over as the GM. They’ve made a killing with projectable high school picks such as RHP Aaron Sanchez (’10), RHP Noah Syndergaard (’10), RHP Drew Hutchinson (’09) and Jake Marisnick (’09). They’ve complemented those high-risk, high-reward picks with some safe college players, like RHP Deck McGuire (’10) and RHP Asher Wojciechowski (’10). Toronto’s first-round picks haven’t had to be that impressive, due to their impressive all-around drafting. A secret to the Jays success has been their willingness to go with high school players (an AL East high 56%) as well as left-handed pitching (AL East high 24%).
2011: RHP Tyler Beede, OF Jacob Anderson, RHP Joe Musgrove, OF Dwight Smith, RHP Kevin Comer
2010: RHP Deck McGuire, RHP Aaron Sanchez, RHP Noah Syndergaard, RHP Asher Wojciechowski
2009: RHP Chad Jenkins, LHP James Paxton
2008: 1B David Cooper
2007: SS Kevin Ahrens, C J.P. Arencibia, LHP Brett Cecil, SS Justin Jackson, RHP Trystan Magnuson
Dahl hasn't had the most impressive spring, but he won't last the first round.
State of the farm system
Due to some incredible draft luck and some savvy front office moves, the Jays are positioned with one of the top farm systems in baseball. They have a wealth of pitching, almost enough to fill two big-league rotations, and several high-ceiling position prospects, including Marisnick and OF Anthony Gose (’08).
Where they’re looking
The Jays have two first-round selections this year, the 17th and 22nd. Assuming they stay true to form, you can expect them to go after another projectable high-schooler. OF David Dahl (Oak Mountain HS, AL) would be a great fit, and since he’s had an uninspiring spring he could actually fall to them at pick 17. Of course they’ll do their due diligence on the talented crop of high school pitchers, including LHP Hunter Virant (Camarillo HS, CA), RHP Lucas Sims (Brookwood HS, GA) and maybe even LHP Max Fried (Harvard-Westlake HS, CA).
